Bermuda Weather Service Forecast Discussion

For Thursday, April 18, 2019  08:00 UTC

FORECASTER - Ken Smith 

Bermuda Weather Service Forecast Discussion
For AM Thursday, 18 April 2019
Forecaster:  KS

NOWCAST (Today)
Satellite imagery shows a broad, slow moving, weak frontal trough 
to our north.  There is no significant convection and zero spherics 
activity anywhere along this trough.  Satellite shows nearly clear 
skies associated with high pressure centred further to our north. 
 Our current sky condition is broken.  Winds are light north-northwesterly. 
 The latest north Atlantic surface analysis from the Ocean Prediction 
Centre shows seas in our area about 6 feet which initializes well 
with wave models.

UKMO and GFS are in good agreement throughout the forecast period. 
 Upper levels show an Omega block over the western Atlantic with 
the ridge axis near to our west.  Both models show a weak surface 
trough moving south through Bermuda today and both models indicate 
barely a trace of precipitation.  Itís possible the only noticeable 
effects of this frontal passage will be partly cloudy skies and a 
wind shift.  Hence todayís forecast is for partly cloudy skies with 
just a chance of 1 or 2 brief, light showers.  Light to moderate 
northwesterly winds this morning will veer and increase to moderate 
northeasterly this afternoon behind the passing trough, then becoming 
east-northeast overnight.  Seas will be slight to moderate through 
tonight.

There are no watches or warnings at this time and none are expected 
through tonight.

SHORT TERM FORECAST (Friday & Saturday)
The Omega block will likely maintain settled conditions through 
the weekend as the central ridge become more pronounced in our vicinity 
while the associated lows over the eastern U.S. and to our east gradually 
deepen.  Expect sunny skies for Good Friday, becoming partly cloudy 
Friday night through Saturday.  Moderate easterly winds Friday will 
veer southeasterly in the afternoon, then increase moderate to strong 
in the evening.  Winds will then remain moderate to strong through 
Saturday night.  Slight to moderate seas on Friday will rise to moderate 
for Saturday.

A Small Craft Warning is expected from Friday evening through Saturday 
night.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Sunday & Monday)
By Sunday morning the large surface high will be centred to our 
northeast and a cold front will stretch southward from New Brunswick 
to Cuba passing roughly midway between Bermuda and the U.S. east 
coast.  Although this front will slowly drift closer to Bermuda, 
the high is expected to maintain a ridge southwestward over Bermuda 
blocking the front from reaching the island.  However, following 
sunny periods Sunday morning, convergence along the eastern flank 
of this front is likely to produce mostly cloudy skies through Monday. 
 Moderate to strong southeasterly winds Sunday morning are expected 
to ease to moderate by evening, then gradually ease light to moderate 
by Monday evening.  Moderate seas on Sunday will begin to slowly 
fall, becoming slight to moderate for Monday.

A Small Craft Warning is expected for Sunday morning through afternoon.
No watches or warnings are expected for Monday.